Do Manchester United need Ander Herrera?

Manchester United have been linked with a selection of fierce playmaking options over the past few seasons. Notable players, such as the likes of Mesut Özil, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Thiago Alcantara, Mario Götze, and İlkay Gündoğan, have all been at the forefront of fervent speculation surrounding a midfield that has been woefully lacking creativity. But an unanticipated saga this summer involved Athletic Bilbao midfielder, Ander Herrera, in a pursuit that not only raised many an eyebrow due to three enigmatic men in suits, but also the question regarding whether the Spanish midfielder is a suitable option for United, given the other possible options in an increasingly inflated market.

Newly incumbent manager, David Moyes, had shown glimpses of his ambitions this summer, no longer engrossed in his zealous desire for the former Arsenal man Cesc Fabregas, a prospect that lulled the United faithful into believing the deal was more possible than reason allowed. However, as the market progressed and United’s activity seemed to have quietened, it was reported that Athletic Bilbao had rejected a £22.5 million bid for Herrera on 29th August – the start of a process that eventually proved to have been set in motion too late.

Moyes explained that the reason behind United not pursuing him further was due to Bilbao demanding they pay the £30 million buy-out clause, a valuation that didn’t necessarily correspond with the quality Herrera currently possesses. He did say, however, that he is still partial to the midfielder, suggesting that United could move for him in January. It could be argued that with United having Shinji Kagawa at their disposal, The Reds don’t actually need Herrera. Having said this, Herrera has been likened to players such as Cesc Fabregas, due to his ability to play deep, box-to-box, or behind the striker – an apparent versatility that could be valued at United. Spanish football expert, Guillem Balague, openly stated that he doesn’t believe Herrera is worth his buy-out clause, but that if United do opt to buy him, he could be “one of the top players in the Premier League” in a few years time.

One of the reasons behind Manchester United’s purchase of Marouane Fellaini was that he offered a physical presence – an ability to read play and break up opposition possession. A reason behind their pursuit of Herrera’s possible transfer could be similar. While Herrera’s percentage of successful tackles (77%) in the 2012/13 statistics didn’t strike me as promising, once I looked further into how many successful tackles he had actually made (90) there appeared to be a notable difference which distinguished his performance from other midfielders’, signifying that Moyes might be looking to develop a midfield that is combative, difficult to break down, and that might have coped against Manchester City, had there been sufficient depth in the centre of the park to deal with the presence of Yaya Touré and Fernandinho.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that Herrera’s tackling success rate deserves adulation, considering Athletic Bilbao’s position in La Liga (12th) last season. Having said that, according to Squawka, Athletic Bilbao have the third best possession stats in the league, after Barcelona and Real Madrid. This suggests that Herrera’s tackling ability is better than first anticipated. The only down side to this prospect is that Herrera’s tenacity sometimes causes him to concede fouls (52) and receive bookings (11 yellow and two red cards) – what could be seen as worrying stats if we take into consideration that he could share a midfield with Fellaini, who conceded more fouls (88) than any other defensive midfielder inside the top six in the Premier League (2011/12).

Unlike other German talent United have been linked with in the past, a more realistic purchase would have been Dortmund’s deep-lying playmaker, İlkay Gündoğan. The German international displays a level of doggedness, managing to win 64% of his 50-50 challenges, whilst his ability to read the game is indicated by his 63 interceptions, higher than any other midfielder in the list. Bayern Munich’s Toni Kroos was another German midfielder whose future seemed in doubt. Pep Guardiola’s decision to bring Thiago Alcantara to Bavaria provoked a few questions concerning how Kroos could fit into a Bayern side with over fifteen thousand midfielders. The only worry surrounding his capabilities is the substandard number of interceptions (14) he made last season.

Manchester United fans were crying out for Cesc Fabregas or Luka Modric to join The Reds this summer. Until, that is, Fabregas announced his plan to stay at Barcelona and Xabi Alonso got injured for Madrid. Defensively, these highly sought-after players showed that they’re more than capable when putting in a shift for their teams, with Modric winning 70% of his 50-50 challenges for Madrid, the highest in the assemblage, and Fabregas managing to exhibit an almost brilliant record, having an 85% tackle success rate and making no defensive errors. The only thing that could be said is that he had the least interceptions (19), but that might be due to the fact that he played further up the field for Barcelona, giving him limited opportunity to increase this.

As mentioned in my previous article about Marouane Fellaini, a difficulty that United sometimes have is keeping hold of possession – a problem that one may have thought Fellaini had solved after The Reds’ recent performance against Bayer Leverkusen, but would quickly realise still exists due to their destruction against City. If Herrera is to become a Manchester United player, in January or next season, he would ideally be part of the midfield with Fellaini as a Michael Carrick replacement (based on age discrepancies), or part of a midfield trio (in a 4-3-3 formation, for example).

If we compare based on this long-term vision, we can determine that Herrera has not exhibited the passing ability that Carrick did last and over many seasons (81% compared with 88%). He is also considerably lacking in accuracy in comparison with all of the other possible targets. I suppose some might argue that Herrera is part of a less than adequate team, but as already mentioned, Bilbao are a side that have proven they can keep the ball. The stats clearly indicate that Herrera has attempted a substantial number of passes (1913); the closest number to Fabregas’ attempts (2262).

An encouraging factor of the Spanish midfielder’s play is that he dribbles (44) a level reminiscent to Luka Modric’s (46), a player that has caught attention in the Premier League due to his comfortable and collected ability on the ball. The fact that he is a composed dribbler might be a distinguishing factor, as Tom Cleverley (4), Shinji Kagawa (8), Anderson (12), and Carrick (8) don’t seem to be as adventurous as the man from Bilbao. But then again, Toni Kroos exemplifies the fact that dribbling doesn’t necessarily equate to results, as he dribbled the least (24) yet performed far better in terms of chances created, passing accuracy, number of times dispossessed, and, as we’ll soon find out, scoring and assisting.

In terms of chances created – another necessary area of improvement for enhancing the creativity at United – Herrera (37) does much better than players such as Gündoğan (18) and Thiago (21). This might be related to Herrera’s tendency to move further up the field, as opposed to playing deep for the majority of the game (like Gündoğan might, for example). However, it must be noted that players like Modric (56), Fabregas (50), and Kroos (68) have shown exceptional capability in creating chances in abundance – perhaps to do with the quality of movement the attackers in their teams possess.

A clear issue with Herrera is that, for his age, in comparison with other midfielders, he hasn’t learnt to accumulate a sufficient number of goals (1) or assists (2) to be considered a potential Manchester United player. However, it could be argued that Modric suffered the same fate at Tottenham but managed to hold his own as a midfield metronome; the glue, as Sky Sports’ Gary Neville once described Paul Scholes, that sticks the team together. Based on his passing success rate, however, it remains questionable whether he even possesses this capacity.

Ultimately, Ander Herrera has statistically proven that components of his play can add a new element to the United midfield. His trickery and composure on the ball is an added guile that The Reds arguably don’t have, whilst his tackling and tenacious play could support the midfield in making it more difficult to break down. However, there are elements that he has to improve on, such as his temperament, goal scoring, and assist rate – aspects to his play in which others have shown strong capability and a proficiency in producing results therefrom.

United are not known, apart from one Argentinian disaster, for buying world-class talent for extortionate amounts of money from other leagues. Having said that, in the past, players such as Eden Hazard, Ronaldinho, Arjen Robben, Lucas Moura, Raphaël Varane, Karim Benzema, and Robert Lewandowski have all turned down United in favour of other teams. However, it is difficult to assume that United opted for Herrera because he was the only option left and players like Thiago rejected The Reds this summer. We don’t actually know that yet. In reality, only the manager knows what Herrera can offer the team or why players like Thiago weren’t pursued targets, and I’m not about to question his judgements just yet.